A trader who caught the cryptocurrency surge in 2023 warns that Bitcoin (BTC) could be bad news away from a major sell-off event.

Pseudonymous analyst DonAlt informed his 484,400 Twitter followers that the downside risk in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency markets is now “significantly higher” than six months ago when the market witnessed the high-profile crash of FTX.

“The downside risk is significantly higher now than six months ago. Memecoins are soaring now, and scammers are out there deceiving everyone as much as possible, so there are fewer and fewer reasons to rise. We just need to find a reason to go nuclear.”

According to DonAlt, Bitcoin’s 100% surge from its low in November 2022 might just be a rebound in a macro bear market.

“If you just look at this move from a technical perspective:

From $69,000 to $16,000 with zero rebound Nuke

Pull back some with the current trend

Did not even return to the original range.

Ignoring my feelings and potential bullish bias, this is just a bear market rebound.”

While the analyst believes that Bitcoin has not yet crossed the bull market zone, he still firmly believes that $16,000 is the bottom of this bear market cycle.

“That being said, I’m still in the team bottom, anything close to $20,000 is an amazing buy. It just makes sense to look at both sides of the coin before making a decision, and I have to say, the bear market argument is really good here. Worth pondering.”

As for his view on Bitcoin, DonAlt indicates that as long as BTC is trapped between $20,000 and $30,000, it may maintain a sideways trading environment.

“Can’t remember the last time I’ve seen this much flip-flopping.

It’s really simple:

Above $30,000 – Good

Below $30,000 – chop

Below $20,000 – a steal.”